O. A. Rushchitskaya1 , E. S. Kulikova2, E. N. Yalunina2 , T. I. Kruzhkova1
1 Ural State Agrarian University, Ekaterinburg, Russia
2 Ural State University of Economics, Ekaterinburg, Russia
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Volume 26 No. 1
Date of paper submission: 02.11.2025, date of review: 03.12.2025, date of acceptance: 05.12.2025.
Published: 01/30/2026
Abstract. Russian agriculture enters 2026 under conditions of dual pressure: the high cost of borrowed capital constrains technological upgrading and increases the cost of the working-capital cycle, while global price conditions and rising logistics costs intensify competition in external markets. As a result, sectoral resilience is determined not only by production volumes, but by the ability to convert physical output into financial results without eroding the investment base. The purpose of the study is to develop an integrated methodology for assessing the resilience and competitiveness of Russian agriculture under financial constraints and global market pressure. The methods employed include a structural diagnosis of the export model based on industry data on major importers, with calculation of top-five concentration indicators for wheat and grain exports overall; a regulatory-technological analysis of seed import quotas with an assessment of absolute and relative changes by crop; and scenario modelling for 2026 using a triad of parameters “interest-rate conditions – export prices – logistics cost index” while accounting for the share of preferential lending. The scientific novelty lies in quantitatively linking financial constraints with export competitiveness through the measurement of concentration risks and working-capital cycle parameters. The analysis demonstrates that under conditions of expensive capital, external market concentration and logistics delays become cost drivers comparable in magnitude to price conditions. The results indicate that high concentration of export flows increases dependence on a limited set of foreign markets and heightens sensitivity to price and logistics shocks; tighter import-substitution regulation in the seed segment reduces external dependence but simultaneously raises requirements for the technological quality and reproductive capacity of domestic breeding and crop-protection solutions; and expansion of physical export volumes under an adverse price environment creates a “volume trap”, in which higher shipments fail to translate into commensurate foreign-exchange revenues and are accompanied by pressure on costs and investment activity. The scenario interpretation of the 2026 outlook thus reduces to a choice of a managed development trajectory, where an emphasis on efficiency, quality, and targeted financial instruments is opposed to an inertial path of contraction and investment pause.
Keywords: sustainability, competitiveness, Russian agro-industrial complex, credit restrictions, export grain, import substitution, scenario forecast
For citation: Rushchitskaya O. A., Kulikova E. S., Yalunina E. N., Kruzhkova T. I. Sustainability and competitiveness of Russian agriculture in the context of financial constraints and global market pressure: a forecast for 2026. Agrarian Bulletin of the Urals. 2026; 26 (01): 194‒204. https://doi.org/10.32417/1997-4868-2026-26-01-194-204 (In Russ.)
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