Authors: M. S. Petukhova
Novosibirsk State Agrarian University, Novosibirsk, Russia *E-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Abstract. This article attempts to describe the patterns of scientific and technological development of the crop production industry from the perspective of studying the dynamics of productivity as one of the key elements of the system. However, the complexity of such a system as a crop production industry causes the presence of other factors that affect scientific and technological development, which will be considered in the following studies. The purpose of this work is to study the regularities in the dynamics of the grain yield indicator in Russia and its forecast. Methods. The methodological basis of the research is the elements of system analysis, such as comparative analysis, graphical method, and computational and constructive method. he crisis phenomena in the economy) revealed its frequency and the predicted next period. The duration of the period will be 18 years until 2046. The average yield in the country this year will be at the level of 30, 65 c/ha. The scientific novelty of the study is to identify patterns and build a forecast of grain yield in Russia, based on the introduction of such concepts as the rate of change in yield and periods with a constant level of technical development.
Keywords: scientific and technological development, scientific and technical progress, crop production, grain production, frequency, forecast, yield, development patterns.
For citation: Petukhova M. S. Issledovaniye dinamiki urozhaynosti zerna v Rossii v kontekste nauchno-tekhnologicheskogo razvitiya otrasli rasteniyevodstva [Research of grain yield dynamics in Russia in the context of scientific and technological development of the crop production industry] // Agrarian Bulletin of the Urals. 2021. No. 01 (204). Pp. 81‒90. DOI: 10.32417/1997-4868-2021-204-01-81-90. (In Russian.)
