E. B. Dvoryadkina, G. M. Kvon, E. A. Shishkina
Ural State University of Economics, Ekaterinburg, Russia
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Volume 25 No. 5
Date of paper submission: 11.02.2025, date of review: 26.03.2025, date of acceptance: 07.04.2025.
Published: 05/31/2025
Abstract. Ensuring the economic security of Russian regions operating in the face of external shocks remains an urgent problem requiring constant monitoring. The agricultural sector of the regions, on the development of which the country's food security depends, is also strategically important, which is reflected in documents at various levels. The purpose of the study is to identify the main trends in the development of the Sverdlovsk region based on the indicators proposed by the authors that ensure the economic security of the agricultural sector in the region in the context of its shock resistance and the formation of development forecasts. Methods. The main method used in the work is economic analysis, forecasting methods, as well as methods of tabular and graphical visualization tools, dynamic series analysis, which allowed us to substantiate the current trends, identify time dependencies and generate forecasts of selected indicators for various periods corresponding to the strategies of the region. The scientific novelty of the work consists in supplementing the system of indicators previously developed by the authors, which made it possible, based on dynamic series, to justify their forecast values for 2026, 2030 and 2035, reflecting the level of economic security of the agricultural sector in the region. Results. Based on an assessment of the dynamics of actual indicators, officially confirmed by statistics reflecting the specifics of the agricultural sector of the Sverdlovsk region for the period 2010–2023, trends were identified and a forecast of the indicators proposed by the authors was made from the perspective of shock resistance and economic security of the region, which made it possible to identify current trends and compare them with the targets reflected in strategic documents. The practical significance of the conducted research lies in using the results of forecasts to ensure the economic security of the region, taking into account the specifics of the agricultural sector of the Sverdlovsk region.
Keywords: region, economic security, food security, agriculture, agro-industrial complex, sustainability, resilience (shock resistance), forecast, trends
For citation: Dvoryadkina E. B., Kvon G. M., Shishkina E. A. Trends and forecast for the development of the regional agricultural sector in the context of ensuring its economic security and shock resistance. Agrarian Bulletin of the Urals. 2025; 25 (05): 792‒805. https://doi.org/10.32417/1997-4868-2025-25-05-792-805 (In Russ.)
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