N. V. Stepnykh, E. V. Nesterova, S. M. Kramshenkova
Ural Federal Agrarian Scientific Research Centre of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Ekaterinburg, Russia
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Volume 26 No. 7
Date of paper submission: 07.04.2026, date of review: 25.04.2026, date of acceptance: 05.06.2026.
Published: 07/31/2026
Abstract. Throughout the Urals, Western Siberia and adjacent regions of Northern Kazakhstan, climate change is leading to a deterioration of natural conditions for crop cultivation. The purpose of this study is to identify regional trends in crop yields for the Urals and Western Siberia in the context of climate change. Methods. The study uses correlation and regression analysis, equations of trends in changes in indicators over a long period. Information on the area of crops, crop yields, and fertilizers is taken from the Unified Interdepartmental Information and Statistical System (EMISS). The scientific novelty lies in the construction and analysis of trends in crop yield fluctuations, identifying crops with faster yield growth that are most adapted to changing climatic conditions. Results. In all regions of the Urals and Western Siberia, in the period from 1993 to 2025, there was a decrease in the hydrothermal coefficient, but an increase in grain yields was observed, which was associated with an increase in the use of fertilizers, the introduction of new varieties, and plant protection products after a decline in resource provision in the nineties. Crops with outstripping yield growth have been identified. In the period from 2007 to 2025, the growth rate of winter wheat yields in all regions except the Sverdlovsk region and the Altai Krai was higher than that of spring wheat, while the increase in oilseed yields in all regions except the Sverdlovsk region was significantly higher compared with its change in grain crops. The data show that in the regions of the Urals and Western Siberia, within the limits of effective demand in domestic and global markets, more attention should be paid to winter wheat and oilseed crops.
Keywords: agricultural crops, climate, hydrothermal coefficient, yield, acreage
Acknowledgments. This study was conducted at the Kurgan Research Institute of Agriculture, a branch of the Ural Federal Research Center of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in the Laboratory of Economics and Innovative Development, as part of the State Assignment of the Ministry of Science and Higher Education, Topic No. 532-2026-0014 “Improving the agricultural systems of the Ural region in a changing climate using nature-based agricultural technologies and digital methods to increase crop sustainability, resource efficiency, and soil fertility conservation”.
For citation: Stepnykh N. V., Nesterova E. V., Kramshenkova S. M. Adaptability of agricultural crops to changing climate conditions in the regions of the Urals and Western Siberia. Agrarian Bulletin of the Urals. 2026; 26 (07): 1231‒1243. https://doi.org/10.32417/1997-4868-2026-26-07-1231-1243. (In Russ.)
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