Authors:
S. YU. TURKO, candidate of agricultural sciences, researcher,
M. V. VLASENKO, candidate of agricultural sciences, senior researcher,
K. YU. TRUBAKOVA, research engineer, postgraduate student,
Federal Scientific Center for Agroecology, Integrated Land Reclamation and Protective Forestation, Russian Academy of Sciences (97 Universitetskiy prosp., 400062, Volgograd).
Abstract. The article considers the forecast of grain crops yield in connection with the change of economic activity and global climate change (according to the GFDL and UKMO scenarios – warming by 2 and 3–4 °C). The risks associated with the change of crop yields of grain crops were calculated considering pessimistic and optimistic forecasts, the positive aspects of the impact of forest reclamation were identified. The results obtained, because of their ambiguity, make it difficult to make an accurate forecast, but they convincingly suggest that climate change will affect winter crops more favorably. Undoubtedly, global climate change will definitely affect agricultural production, its effectiveness. At the same time, it was considered that the yield of grain crops substantially depends on the variety and type of crops used at this time stage, the technology used for their cultivation and the amount of fertilizers applied. The role of forest strips for the pessimistic forecast is 55 %, and for the optimistic – 83 %. The risks associated with climate change depend on the predicted scenario of this change. In the pessimistic forecast, in the version without forest strips, the risks due to climate change will increase by 4.27 times compared to the risks of the period 1960–2005. At forest-reclaimed arable land, the risk in this case will also increase, but its increase will be only 2.78 times. In the optimistic forecast, in the version without forest strips, the risk will be reduced by 8.3 times, it will be 0.12, and in the version with forest strips, the risk will be reduced by 34.5 times, it will not exceed 0.029 and it will not be presented practically.
Keywords: forecast crop production, crops agricultural production, global climate change, forest melioration.
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