Agrarian Bulletin of the Urals

The journal has been published since 2000

ISSN 1997 - 4868 (Print); ISSN 2307-0005 (Online)

 

Methodological tools for evaluation of the level of terrorist risk on the basis of diagnostics of socio-economic factors

Authors:

V. E. BESHLYK

postgraduate student,

A. G. SVETLAKOV,

doctor of economics, associate professor, professor,

Perm State Agricultural Academy (23 Petropavlovskaya Str., 614990, Perm; tel: +7 908 271-08-16, +7 922 386-56-86; e-mail: This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it., This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.)

Abstract.  Recently, there has been a growing sense of imminent threats and dangers in everyone in every sphere of life. In the public consciousness, there is an increasing awareness of the need to assess and ensure the security of citizens and the state as a whole. First of all, we are talking about ensuring the country’s defense capability and the so-called state security, in the sphere of operation of the former KGB. In the economic sphere, the problems of security were considered mainly and applied to foreign economic activity or economic crime. Only in recent years, attention has also been paid to other aspects of security: the environment, the consequences of natural and man-made emergencies, the growth of organized crime and the terrorist activity of part of the population of the state. Economic evaluation of the consequences of security threats in any sphere, as a rule, provides a universal approach, enabling to quantify and on this basis to determine the system of priorities in ensuring the social and economic security of the state. Delay, as well as excessive forcing events without assessing the situation, can lead to an avalanche and short-term deterioration of all the main indicators characterizing the system of catastrophic processes with their irreversible changes. Do not forget about the development of scientific centers of the West and their specials services, by which so-called “sensitivity indicators” have been developed, with the help of which it is possible to adopt both tactical and strategic decisions with respect to our country, including a description of the official and illegal apposition. A conceptual analysis of the regional aspects of ensuring Russia’s economic security is an important part of ensuring the national security of the state. Transformation of threats forms results from negative consequences and increase the level of social tension in society. Recent events directly point to the need to assess terrorist activity and to develop adequate measures aimed at localizing emerging risks and threats.

Keywords: terrorism, economic damage, social crisis, extremist and terrorist activity, system-cognitive analysis, identified level, rationing of parameters, threshold values, socio-economic indicators, scale of influence.

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