About the Journal

Authors:

P. A. KOKOVIN, candidate of agricultural sciences, associate professor,

URAL STATE FORESTRY UNIVERSITY (37 Sibirskiy tract, 620100, Ekaterinburg)

Abstract.   The understanding of exhaustibility of natural resources, deterioration of the environment and irrelevance of the old concept of economic development were the reasons for searching for a new paradigm of sustainable territorial development. The basis of this paradigm is the trinity and equality of three spheres of development: ecological, social and economic. For development of the separate territories of the Russian Federation the lack of able-bodied population is a restraining factor. Demographic indicators in this model are components of the social sphere and without this factor, the full, long-term forecast of social and economic development of the territory is impossible. Natural basis of manpower of the region is the population, its qualitative and quantitative indices in many respects determine further development of the territory within the concept of sustainable development. Preserving and developing population is the main objective of the long-term development program of the territory. In the analysis of an economic situation, the choice of the scenario of social and economic development of the territory, in the conditions of transformation of economy, reorganization of the economic system, questions of demography acquire special sharpness and relevance. This work presents the analysis of demographic indicators of the Sverdlovsk region in comparison with the neighboring territories. The short-term forecast of separate indicators of demographic development of the territory is executed, in case of various scenarios of economic development of the territory. Quality evaluations of life of the population of the territory were performed on the basis of the analysis of the average salary of the population at the end of the period.