N. V. Shcherbakova
Eastern Center of State Planning, Moscow, Russia
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Volume 25 No. 2
Date of paper submission: 14.08.2024, date of review: 14.11.2024, date of acceptance: 02.12.2024
Published: 02/28/2025
Abstract. In 2022, the number of reindeer in the Russian Federation reached 1.6 million heads, of which more than 30 % belonged to households of the population. Reindeer husbandry plays a key role in the economy and culture of the indigenous peoples of the North, Siberia and the Russian Far East, where it is an important source of income and contributes to the preservation of the traditions of these peoples. The article analyzes the current state of reindeer husbandry, including the problems of low processing depth and the need for systemic changes to improve productivity. The purpose of this study is to assess and forecast the economic efficiency of reindeer husbandry development in the Russian Federation. The scientific novelty of the work consists in analyzing the development of the industry based on a system-dynamic approach by considering the stages of reindeer husbandry combined into a single system by establishing material and financial links between them in the model. Methods. To carry out the calculations, an economic and mathematical model was built, which includes the following main stages of reindeer husbandry: reindeer breeding, slaughter and primary processing of venison, processing of venison and offal, processing of biological waste of reindeer husbandry. The model takes into account various forecast scenarios: inertial, basic and strategic, differing in the predicted growth rates of indicators. Results. The main results of the study include forecasts of the number of deer, the need for deer pastures, the profitability of the industry and tax revenues to budgets of all levels until 2030. The most promising strategic scenario is recognized, which involves the active development of the industry and the creation of breeding farms to increase livestock. The proposed measures for the development of reindeer husbandry include the division into ethnic and industrial reindeer husbandry, the introduction of principles of processing products at the federal level and the creation of venison processing systems. These steps are aimed at improving the efficiency of the industry and its integration into the Russian economy.
Keywords: reindeer herding, livestock farming, economic efficiency, system-dynamic approach, reindeer herding development model
For citation: Shcherbakova N. V. Modeling the development of northern reindeer herding in the Russian Federation based on a system-dynamic approach. Agrarian Bulletin of the Urals. 2025; 25 (02): 337‒348. https://doi.org/10.32417/1997-4868-2025-25-02-337-348 (In Russ.)
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